In trade negotiations, as in chess, sometimes you need to accept a temporary disadvantage to secure a better long-term position, points out Sonal Varma, chief economist (India and Asia ex-Japan) at Nomura.
The era where nations thrived through rigid alignments is giving way to an age where the connective State defines power. For India, that era has arrived, points out Dr Nishakant Ojha.
The commerce ministry on Friday held consultations with key stakeholders, including shipping lines, exporters, container firms, and other departments, to assess the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on India's overseas trade, an official said. The meeting was chaired by Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal.
Global energy giant Shell has acquired Mumbai-based Raj Petro Specialities to deepen its foothold in the world's third biggest lubricants market in the world, a top company official said. Shell, which has already invested over $5 billion in India across the energy value chain -- from LNG import terminals and fuel stations to renewable energy and technology centres -- has acquired 100 per cent equity interest in Raj Petro Specialities Pvt Ltd from Germany's Brenntag Group.
Tightening Russian gas supplies to Europe has led to scramble for tankers before winter sets in.
'Geopolitical stability could remove the crude oil risk premium.'
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
Essential and strategic items such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and energy products like oil, gas, coal and LNG are exempted from the 27 per cent import duty announced by the US on Wednesday, according to think tank GTRI.
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
'If you align your ambition with India's rise, the peak of your careers will unfold alongside the peak of India's power.'
US shale oil would act as an alternative to India's heavy dependency on Russian crude, which is currently facing sanctions.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
India and Japan's effort to form a multilateral group of liquefied natural gas buyers to avoid paying higher prices for the fuel is laudable as an objective but is unlikely to be effective immediately.
India's major imports from the US include crude oil and petroleum products, gold and jewellery, plastics, aircraft, and electrical machinery and components. The key exports to the US comprise pharmaceuticals and biologicals, telecom equipment, precious and semi-precious stones, petroleum products, gold and precious metal jewellery, and ready-made garments.
Oil and LNG prices are likely to shoot up if Iran is to block Strait of Hormuz, through which countries like India import crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and UAE, leading to a spike in inflation, analysts said on the Iran-Israel conflict. The Iran and Israel conflict has escalated over the last few days. Iran first launched drone and rocket attacks on Israel, which retaliated by firing a missile. Crude oil prices have hovered around USD 90 per barrel since the conflict.
India and Qatar on Tuesday agreed to elevate their relationship to a strategic partnership and double bilateral trade to USD 28 billion over the next five years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Qatari Amir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani signed agreements and MoUs to strengthen economic cooperation, including a revised double taxation avoidance agreement. The strategic partnership will cover the "entire spectrum" of the bilateral relationship, including trade, energy security, and regional and international cooperation. Both leaders also discussed ways to further strengthen and broaden the energy partnership, including "exploring mutual investments." The Amir's visit provided an "excellent opportunity" for the top leadership of the two countries to discuss and "cement a strategic partnership for enhanced future cooperation."
Here is a list of Q & As to explain these issues and implications of the US move.
President Donald Trump is expected to sign a series of executive orders fulfilling campaign promises, including declaring an emergency at the southern border, addressing a national energy crisis, and defining sex-related policies. The orders aim to address immigration, national security, and energy independence, with a focus on reversing policies implemented by the previous administration.
Escalation of the conflict in West Asia between Israel and Iran has had a direct impact on the energy markets, and more broadly on the financial markets as well as the global economy.
A Q-Max LNG vessel, the largest LNG carrier in its class, with a capacity of about 261,000 cubic meters, was received at Petronet LNG Ltd's Dahej import terminal in Gujarat on Tuesday.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday thanked Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani for the release of eight Indian nationals, who were sentenced to death after being arrested in Doha in August 2022.
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
Total, which had a few weeks back exited Royal Dutch Shell-led Hazira LNG import terminal in Gujarat, will join Adani in developing a 5 million tonnes a year import facility at Dhamra in Odisha. The two will also set up a joint venture to roll out a fuel retail network of 1,500 outlets, mostly on highways, in the next 10 years, Adani and Total said in a joint statement.
India may have to lean more on West Asian nations for supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a cooking fuel, in the coming years after Indian state-run refiners drew up big plans to diversify into producing more profitable petrochemicals. This shift leads to reduced LPG output, Indian refining executives said. The mantra for state-run oil companies, from Indian Oil Corporation (IndianOil) to liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer Petronet LNG, which are looking to diversify their businesses from lower-margin fuels, has been value-added petrochemicals.
The dreary, cold months from December to February may prove to be the undoing of many a nation as they grapple with sky-high fuel prices - a result of the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Many - Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China - will still pull through on the strength of their wealth or because of strong storage infrastructure. But India will have its back to the wall. Signs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rates hitting new records this winter are already evident.
Qatar is set to reach a liquefied natural gas production target of 77 million tonnes per annum, the world's largest LNG capacity, the country's energy minister has said.
State-owned Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd (ISPRL), which operates India's strategic crude oil storage, will make awards by December to lease around 1 million tons of crude oil storage space (7.3 million barrels) at two of the country's three existing Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), around a fifth of the total SPR capacity. This will enable the refilling of crude caverns even as escalating hostilities in the Gulf threaten disruptions in crude supplies, two industry sources said.
Global oil and gas majors Shell and ConocoPhillips have offered to sell Australian liquefied natural gas to India to meeting its growing energy needs, petroleum secretary S C Tripathi said on Monday.
'Primary buyers are commercial taxi and fleet operators and small businessmen.' 'CNG prices have been remarkably stable unlike petrol.'
India's crude oil import bill is set to exceed $100 billion in the current fiscal year ending March 31, almost double its spending last year, as international oil prices trade at seven-year highs. India spent $94.3 billion in the first 10 months (April-January) of the ongoing financial year that started April 1, 2021, according to data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC). It spent $11.6 billion in January alone when oil prices had started to surge.
The acquisition of stake in Progress Energy Resources Corp's shale gas assets and Pacific NorthWest LNG for 1 billion Canadian dollars ($900 million) marks IOC's maiden entry into North America.
The incident remains a reminder of the inherent fragilities of all geopolitical relationships.
Closely watched by the world for any escalation, the Iran-Israel conflict is already showing early signs of stress for India Inc - longer deliveries, doubling freight rates, extended working capital cycles, and higher costs. For those yet to feel the heat, there is growing apprehension and nervousness over future developments, observed industry executives.
'Wherever the government has provided incentives for the purchase of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks, it gets a push for most of these alternate fuels. '
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) on Tuesday announced the acquisition of a 95 per cent stake in Gopalpur Ports in Odisha from Shapoorji Pallonji Group and Orissa Stevedores Ltd at an equity value of Rs 1,349 crore. In Gopalpur Ports, Shapoorji Pallonji Group (SP Group) firm SP Port Maintenance Pvt Ltd has a 56 per cent stake and Orissa Stevedores Ltd (OSL) has a 44 per cent stake. Gopalpur Port is an all-weather deep-water berthing port with a capacity of 20 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) situated in Ganjam district of Odisha.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
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State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Adani-Total Gas Ltd and Shell were among the 29 companies that bid and bought natural gas to be produced from the deepest field in the KG-D6 block of Reliance Industries Ltd and bp, sources said. IOC walked away with almost half of the 6 million standard cubic meters per day of gas sold in an e-auction on Wednesday while state-owned gas utility GAIL bought 0.7 mmscmd, Adani-Total Gas Ltd 0.4 mmscmd, Shell 0.5 mmscmd, GSPC 0.25 mmscmd and IGS another 0.5 mmscmd, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. Reliance-bp on Wednesday held an e-auction for sale of gas from the MJ field in their eastern offshore KG-D6 block after incorporating the government's new marketing rules to give CNG-selling city gas companies first priority over supplies.
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